New production projects and a fresh shale boom could boost oil output by a million barrels per day (bpd) year on year and result in an oversupply in the next couple of years, according to Goldman Sachs.
“2017-19 is likely to see the largest increase in mega projects’ production in history, as the record 2011-13 capex commitment yields fruit,” the US investment bank said in a research note on Tuesday.
The Opec’s landmark decision to limit output for the first time in eight years in a bid to arrest the existing supply glut reduced price volatility and increased stability, unintentionally helping the shale producers, the bank said.
“Opec’s decision in November 2016 to cut production was rational, in our view, and fit into its role of inventory manager of last resort,” Goldman said.
“However, the unintended consequence was to underwrite shale activity through a bullish credit market at a time when delayed delivery of the 2011-13 capex boom could lead to record non-Opec production growth in 2018.”
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to curb its output by about 1.2 million bpd from January 1 this year. Russia and 10 other non-Opec producers agreed to jointly cut by an additional 600,000 bpd. – Reuters